Elections
(aka Doomsday)
 |
| 2016 House Election Source: New York Times |
Past Election (2016)
- District 38
- Registration
- Democrat: 49.80%
- Republican: 22.18%
- Independent: 2.21%
- Green: 0.32%
- 2016 United States Representative
- Linda Sanchez (Dem): 70.5%
- Ryan Downing (Rep): 29.5%
- California
- 2016 Presidential Race
- Clinton: 61.7%
- Trump: 31.6%
- Registration
- Democrat: 44.9%
- Republican: 26.0%
Primary Election (2018)
Linda Sanchez
Based on the last three elections, incumbent Linda Sanchez is likely to win District 38 again in 2018. Considering the surge-and-decline theory, "the President in the previous election should produce greater losses [for the majority party] at the midterm." Because Sanchez is part of the current minority party, it is more likely she will win her seat in 2018 due to the midterm decline of the sitting President's party.
Prediction: safe
2014
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
| Democratic | Linda Sanchez Incumbent | 59.1% | 58,192 | |
| Republican | Benjamin Campos | 40.9% | 40,288 | |
2012
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
| Democratic | Linda Sanchez Incumbent | 67.5% | 145,280 | |
| Republican | Benjamin Campos | 32.5% | 69,807 | |
Democratic Party
Following the same surge-and-decline theory, it is more likely for Democrats to gain control of the House in 2018. The coattail effect shows that "Senate elections were highly correlated with the presidential one: Republicans didn’t win a competitive Senate seat in a state Trump lost, and didn’t lose one in a state he carried." In the absence of this coattail effect in 2018, Democrats are more likely to do well as the popularity of the President (and the President's party) falls and take control of the House.
General Election (2020)
Linda Sanchez
Sanchez has been in the House since 2003, showing that she has the strength of a career politician. In previous elections, Sanchez fared better when a Democrat was elected president or during midterms with a Republican president. Because she has endured one Democratic and two Republican presidencies, Sanchez is likely to win in 2020 despite the party in control of the Executive branch.
Prediction: leaning
Campaign Finance Status
| Linda Sanchez Campaign Contribution History | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Office | Result | Contributions | |
| 2014 | U.S. House (California, District 38) |  | $1,350,030 | |
| 2012 | U.S. House (California, District 38) | | $1,048,195 | |
| 2010 | U.S. House (California, District 39) | | $723,863 | |
| 2008 | U.S. House (California, District 39) | | $616,883 | |
| 2006 | U.S. House (California, District 39) | | $643,970 | |
| 2004 | U.S. House (California, District 39) | | $786,141 | |
| 2002 | U.S. House (California, District 39) | | $1,076,307 | |
| Grand Total Raised | $6,245,389 | |||
Source: This graphic was generated by Find The Best.
- 2014: $17.65
- 2012: $7.60
Major Issues
2014 Campaign Issues
- Jobs and the Economy
- Excerpt: "Ensuring that every American who wants to work can find a job is Linda’s #1 priority. That is why she has been a leader in advancing the “Make It in America” Agenda. The idea behind “Make It in America” is simple: America needs to be a place where we build make things again."
- Supporting Small Business
- Excerpt: "Linda knows that small businesses are the backbone of our economy and America’s job-creation engine. That is why she is working hard in Congress to provide critical financial support to small businesses in our neighborhoods, by enacting targeted tax cuts; improving the federal contracting and procurement systems; and increasing access to capital to help create new opportunities, grow existing businesses, and boost our economy."
- Quality, Affordable Healthcare
- Excerpt: "Linda proudly voted for the Affordable Care Act, which will strengthen Medicare; prevent insurance company abuses like cutting your benefits when you get sick or refusing to cover you if you have a “pre-existing condition”; and make health insurance more affordable for 30 million hardworking American families across the United States."
- Ensuring a Clean Environment
- Excerpt: "Linda knows that cleaner air and cleaner water will help our children grow up healthier. That is why she has championed efforts to reduce dirty trucks and pollution on the 110 710 Corridor and in the Ports of Long Beach and Los Angeles"
- Make Our Schools Safer and More Effective
- Excerpt: "Linda believes that every child deserves an A+ education: no child should have education opportunities reduced simply because of the neighborhood he or she lives in. That is why Linda has worked to reform No Child Left Behind. Rather than being a mere slogan, it should be a fully funded program that invests in our students so that they can meet the high expectations we have for them."
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